Discover the latest in ARF Pacific Albacore Tuna research.
These studies are peer-reviewed and conducted by scientists at independently funded organizations.
- Alexa Fredston
- Andrew R. Thompson
- Barbara Muhling
- Cheryl L. Barnes
- Chris J. Harvey
- Christopher N. Rooper
- Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies - University of Washington
- Department of Biological Sciences - Wellesley College
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources - Rutgers University
- Desiree Tommasi
- ECS Tech, in support of, NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology
- Elizabeth Holmes
- Elliott L. Hazen
- Environmental Defense Fund
- Eric J. Ward
- Gemma Carroll
- Institute of Marine Sciences - University of California, Santa Cruz
- Isaac C. Kaplan
- Jameal Samhouri
- James A. Smith
- Jerome Fiechter
- Kate Richerson
- Kelly S. Andrews
- Lewis A. K. Barnett
- Lisa G. Crozier
- Melissa A. Haltuch
- Melissa A. Karp
- Mercedes Pozo Buil
- Michael J. Malick
- Michael Jacox
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
- NOAA Fisheries - Alaska Fisheries Science Center
- NOAA Fisheries - Northwest Fisheries Science Center
- NOAA Fisheries - Southwest Fisheries Science Center
- Ocean Sciences Department - University of California, Santa Cruz
- Owen R. Liu
- Pacific Biological Station - Fisheries and Oceans Canada
- Paul Fiedler
- Rachel Seary
- Rebecca L. Selden
- Stephanie Brodie
- Steven J. Bograd
Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions
Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change—rather than accurately predict specific outcomes—it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling.