Discover the latest in ARF Pacific Albacore Tuna research.

These studies are peer-reviewed and conducted by scientists at independently funded organizations.

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies
Christopher M. Free, Sean C. Anderson, Elizabeth A. Hellmers, Barbara Muhling, Michael O. Navarro, Kate Richerson, Lauren A. Rogers, William H. Satterthwaite, Andrew R. Thompson, Jenn M. Burt, Steven D. Gaines, Kristin N. Marshall, J. Wilson White, Lyall F. Bellquist, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management - University of California, Santa Barbara, Marine Science Institute - University of California, Santa Barbara, Pacific Biological Station - Fisheries and Oceans Canada, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, NOAA Fisheries - Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Institute of Marine Sciences - University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Natural Sciences - University of Alaska Southeast, NOAA Fisheries - Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Nature United, Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station and Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences - Oregon State University, The Nature Conservancy, Scripps Institution of Oceanography - University of California San Diego Ericka Carlson Christopher M. Free, Sean C. Anderson, Elizabeth A. Hellmers, Barbara Muhling, Michael O. Navarro, Kate Richerson, Lauren A. Rogers, William H. Satterthwaite, Andrew R. Thompson, Jenn M. Burt, Steven D. Gaines, Kristin N. Marshall, J. Wilson White, Lyall F. Bellquist, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management - University of California, Santa Barbara, Marine Science Institute - University of California, Santa Barbara, Pacific Biological Station - Fisheries and Oceans Canada, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, NOAA Fisheries - Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Institute of Marine Sciences - University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Natural Sciences - University of Alaska Southeast, NOAA Fisheries - Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Fisheries Ecology Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Nature United, Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station and Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences - Oregon State University, The Nature Conservancy, Scripps Institution of Oceanography - University of California San Diego Ericka Carlson

Impact of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries: Surprises and lessons from key case studies

Marine heatwaves are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems, with cascading impacts on coastal economies, communities, and food systems. Studies of heatwaves provide crucial insights into potential ecosystem shifts under future climate change and put fisheries social-ecological systems through “stress tests” that expose both vulnerabilities and resilience. The 2014–16 Northeast Pacific heatwave was the strongest and longest marine heatwave on record and resulted in profound ecological changes that impacted fisheries, fisheries management, and human livelihoods. Here, we synthesize the impacts of the 2014–2016 marine heatwave on US and Canada West Coast fisheries and extract key lessons for preparing global fisheries science, management, and industries for the future.

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Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions
Stephanie Brodie, James A. Smith, Barbara Muhling, Lewis A. K. Barnett, Gemma Carroll, Paul Fiedler, Steven J. Bograd, Elliott L. Hazen, Michael Jacox, Kelly S. Andrews, Cheryl L. Barnes, Lisa G. Crozier, Jerome Fiechter, Alexa Fredston, Melissa A. Haltuch, Chris J. Harvey, Elizabeth Holmes, Melissa A. Karp, Owen R. Liu, Michael J. Malick, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Kate Richerson, Christopher N. Rooper, Jameal Samhouri, Rachel Seary, Rebecca L. Selden, Andrew R. Thompson, Desiree Tommasi, Eric J. Ward, Isaac C. Kaplan, Institute of Marine Sciences - University of California, Santa Cruz, NOAA Fisheries - Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Defense Fund, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA Fisheries - Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies - University of Washington, Ocean Sciences Department - University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources - Rutgers University, ECS Tech, in support of, NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology, Pacific Biological Station - Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Department of Biological Sciences - Wellesley College Jade Gonzales Stephanie Brodie, James A. Smith, Barbara Muhling, Lewis A. K. Barnett, Gemma Carroll, Paul Fiedler, Steven J. Bograd, Elliott L. Hazen, Michael Jacox, Kelly S. Andrews, Cheryl L. Barnes, Lisa G. Crozier, Jerome Fiechter, Alexa Fredston, Melissa A. Haltuch, Chris J. Harvey, Elizabeth Holmes, Melissa A. Karp, Owen R. Liu, Michael J. Malick, Mercedes Pozo Buil, Kate Richerson, Christopher N. Rooper, Jameal Samhouri, Rachel Seary, Rebecca L. Selden, Andrew R. Thompson, Desiree Tommasi, Eric J. Ward, Isaac C. Kaplan, Institute of Marine Sciences - University of California, Santa Cruz, NOAA Fisheries - Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries - Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Defense Fund, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA Fisheries - Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, and Ecosystem Studies - University of Washington, Ocean Sciences Department - University of California, Santa Cruz, Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources - Rutgers University, ECS Tech, in support of, NOAA Fisheries Office of Science and Technology, Pacific Biological Station - Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Department of Biological Sciences - Wellesley College Jade Gonzales

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change—rather than accurately predict specific outcomes—it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling.

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